Claudia Sahm, who has developed the Sahm Rule recessionary indicator, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed’s decision-making process.
Key takeaways from this conversation:
- The US economy is slowing down, but it is not in a recession yet.
- The Sahm Rule, a recessionary indicator, suggests a recession, but it has limitations and may overstate the cooling off in the labor market.
- The Federal Reserve should be proactive in its policy and start cutting interest rates to support the economy.
- Geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of the yen carry trade can impact the Fed’s decision-making.
- The Fed has been navigating unprecedented disruptions and policy responses, and the exit strategy may be messy
HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. This podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions.
Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact S. Aneeqa Aqeel, Director of HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com
Our guest is Nishant Upadhyay, Principal Investment Officer for the Office of the State Treasurer of Connecticut. Join us as we learn from Nishant about the organization and their investment approach. This episode was recorded at the end of June 2024.
Key takeaways from this conversation include:
- Working in the public sector requires a long-term perspective and a focus on delivering returns over many years.
- The investment decision-making process involves the treasurer, the investment staff, and an investment advisory committee.
- Liquid alternatives play a role in providing downside protection and diversification in the investment portfolio.
- The biggest disconnect between investment goals and available products in the market is the lack of transparency and the challenge of predicting market events.
- Qualities to look for in hedge fund managers include a well-defined process, transparency (to the extent possible), and a track record of delivering results.
For questions or enquiries, reach out to us at hfrmedia@hfr.com
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Mirza Baig is a macro and emerging markets strategist at Macro Hive, an independent macro research advisory serving macro and multi-strategy hedge funds. Mirza joins us to discuss the economic and trading outlook in fixed income and emerging markets for the remainder of 2024. Interview date: 29th August 2024
Key takeaways from our conversation
- Volatility in macro markets in recent years can be attributed to the coincidence of multiple macro shocks
- Views on expected size of a Fed policy rate cut in September
- Emerging markets should not be treated as a single asset class, as each country has its own unique risks and opportunities.
- South Africa and China are markets to watch for potential investment opportunities.
- U.S. elections outcome will impact the global economy and cross-border capital flows.
HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. The HFR Podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions. Find us on Spotify, LinkedIn, X, and wherever you get your podcasts.
Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact S. Aneeqa Aqeel, Director of HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com