Claudia Sahm, who has developed the Sahm Rule recessionary indicator, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed’s decision-making process.

Key takeaways from this conversation:

• The US economy is slowing down, but it is not in a recession yet.
• The Sahm Rule, a recessionary indicator, suggests a recession, but it has limitations and may overstate the cooling off in the labor market.
• The Federal Reserve should be proactive in its policy and start cutting interest rates to support the economy.
• Geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of the yen carry trade can impact the Fed’s decision-making.
• The Fed has been navigating unprecedented disruptions and policy responses, and the exit strategy may be messy

HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. This podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions.

Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact S. Aneeqa Aqeel, Director of HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com

Our guest is Nishant Upadhyay, Principal Investment Officer for the Office of the State Treasurer of Connecticut. Join us as we learn from Nishant about the organization and their investment approach. This episode was recorded at the end of June 2024.

Key takeaways from this conversation include:

• Working in the public sector requires a long-term perspective and a focus on delivering returns over many years.

• The investment decision-making process involves the treasurer, the investment staff, and an investment advisory committee.
• Liquid alternatives play a role in providing downside protection and diversification in the investment portfolio.
• The biggest disconnect between investment goals and available products in the market is the lack of transparency and the challenge of predicting market events.
• Qualities to look for in hedge fund managers include a well-defined process, transparency (to the extent possible), and a track record of delivering results.

For questions or enquiries, reach out to us at hfrmedia@hfr.com

You can pose your questions to our experts here and give us feedback and suggestions on what you would like to see featured in the comment box below.

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Mirza Baig is a macro and emerging markets strategist at Macro Hive, an independent macro research advisory serving macro and multi-strategy hedge funds. Mirza joins us to discuss the economic and trading outlook in fixed income and emerging markets for the remainder of 2024. Interview date: 29th August 2024

Key takeaways from our conversation

• Volatility in macro markets in recent years can be attributed to the coincidence of multiple macro shocks
• Views on expected size of a Fed policy rate cut in September
• Emerging markets should not be treated as a single asset class, as each country has its own unique risks and opportunities.
• South Africa and China are markets to watch for potential investment opportunities.
• U.S. elections outcome will impact the global economy and cross-border capital flows.

HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. The HFR Podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions. Find us on Spotify, LinkedIn, X, and wherever you get your podcasts.

Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact S. Aneeqa Aqeel, Director of HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com

We welcome famed economist Nouriel Roubini, who is well known in the financial markets and policy circles alike. Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team, and Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU. On the podcast, he shares his policy recommendations for the incoming Trump administration, his views on diversification and investment strategies, and the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. You can also download the full transcript of our interview as a PDF file at the link above or email us at hfrmedia@hfr.com

The conversation covers the following areas:

– The Economic Landscape Under Trump

– Policy Recommendations for Economic Stability

– Investing in Climate-Friendly Initiatives

– Cryptocurrency: A Speculative Asset?

– The Future of Democracy and Economic Policy

HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. The HFR Podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions. Find us on Spotify, LinkedIn, X, and YouTube.

Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact HFR Media at hfrmedia@hfr.com

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research at BCA Research joins us.

Key takeaways from this conversation:

• • Consumer spending is likely to weaken due to rising delinquency rates
  • Cash and gold are recommended defensive assets in a recession
  • Higher tariffs may strengthen the dollar but hurt global growth
  • The Fed’s ability to act is limited by its mandate for price stability
  • Private credit securitization is a net positive but carries risks in downturns
  • Cryptocurrency demand is driven largely by speculation
  • Models should be used to cross-check economic predictions
  • 2025 may be a tough year for equity investors due to stretched valuations
  • S&P500 prediction for the end of the year is 4450

The HFR Podcast features interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide expert commentary on economic outlook and market conditions.

Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com